The Train Has Left the Station

Jaipur, India

I am in the Bagdogra airport in northeastern India waiting for my delayed flight to Mumbai. No one in this grim waiting lounge out of the 1950’s cares much about U.S. politics right now. Like me, they only care about whether their flight is on time and whether they have any chance of making their destination today (as it turns out - I did).

In fact, throughout my three weeks in India the subject of U.S. politics rarely came up. It only came up in the context of bemusement over our president and the question I was asked consistently: Will America really put Donald Trump back in office for another four years? The question was always asked in a tone that also said, “what are you people thinking?” As I answered their questions, my Indian hosts would often just shrug and smile, sure that nothing happening in the United States really effects them anyway. 

They seem to have little understanding of the immediate peril the president faces in the form of the impeachment inquiry that seems sure to deliver the equivalent of an indictment before the end of the year. And it would seem the White House has the same misunderstanding of events, because from the president on down they are fighting a losing battle over whether the president used taxpayer money to extort a foreign leader. Congress has - for all intents and purposes - moved past that question, proved the point, and is looking next to the penalty phase.

As has often been the case with President Trump, we actually have a confession to the base crime. On top of that we now have eyewitness testimony and documents that show a concerted effort by not only the president, but by his agents in an out of government, to pressure Ukraine to conduct opposition research on behalf of the president in exchange for U.S. military aid already approved by Congress. Even as the congressional probe into the matter continues new information damaging to the president and his team is revealed daily in the pages of the New York Times and the Washington Post.

The “I did nothing wrong - the call was perfect” defense is no longer relevant. The president has been caught standing over a dead body holding a smoking gun. And the bullet is a match.

Now is one of those rare moments in political history in which what happens next depends in large part on whether members of the president’s own party - specifically in the U.S. Senate - have the courage to do the right thing and punish the president for his obviously impeachable behavior.

I continue to refuse to close the door on the possibility that Republicans might do the right thing. If not for their country for their own political future. It is impossible to defend the president against the current charges being lodged against him with a straight face. It is therefore a big waste of personal energy for any senator running for re-election this year - or even two years from now - to spend time explaining their support for the president. As a Republican candidate, how much effort do you really want to spend defending Donald Trump? That’s the question the White House does not seem to be asking itself. Why would anyone be Trump’s friend right now? 

Thinking ahead - let’s assume Republicans in the Senate hold tight and refuse to vote to remove the president from office. They are still setting themselves up for the spectacle of an impeachment trial that will not in anyway be similar to the one President Clinton endured in the 1990’s.

This is an important point to make because much of the Republican strategy has hinged on the Clinton playbook. Let the House impeach, we will protect the president in the Senate, his approval ratings will rise and he will win re-election by an overwhelming margin. This analysis is wrong on at least three points.

The subject matter of the Clinton impeachment was at its core about sex in the oval office. While most Americans may have been embarrassed by the president’s behavior they could completely understand why he would lie about it. In the current case, President Trump is accused of using taxpayer dollars to bribe a foreign official. This is not about personal behavior, it’s about official behavior using taxpayer money. In the Clinton case, Republicans were obsessed with getting their man and over-reached. In the Trump case, Democrats are being extra careful not to over-reach and the facts are on their side. 

President Clinton’s response to the on-going impeachment efforts against him was to double-down on being president and doing the job. Trump’s strategy is to open new fronts of unpresidential behavior on an almost daily basis and dedicate all his time and energy to fighting the charges against him. There’s been no effort to separate the president from the impeachment news of the day so that he can focus on his job - a job I would argue he has never focused on. 

In 1998 Clinton was strengthened by the attacks against him. Trump will not be strengthened by this fight, because he is clearly wrong and the American public is growing tired of his mis-behavior.

For these reasons and for reasons of pure political self-survival it is not out of the question that the next few months could be historic and lead to the president’s removal from office. Once the political calculus is done in the clear light of all the facts it will be hard for any Republican to justify standing with the president.

Of course, there are at least two other ways for this to end. One would involve the president declaring his intention to not seek a second term. The more likely scenario is the trip by Republican leaders to the White House to tell the president his Senate firewall no longer exists and strongly suggest that it is in his own interest to resign.

If Trump survives an impeachment trial and stays in office the results will be devastating for the Republican Party. The party will have placed itself on the wrong side of history and any Republican who cannot separate himself from the decision to defend a lawless president will pay with his credibility and perhaps his public office.